PROBABILISTIC TSUNAMI LOSS ESTIMATION USING RESPONSE-SURFACE METHOD -APPLICATION TO SAGAMI TROUGH EARTHQUAKE-

Abstract

 Various methods such as a logic tree method and a random phase model have been proposed as a probabilistic tsunami hazard evaluation method. However, the calculation load is high because most of the methods require vast numbers of tsunami calculations. In this research, we aimed at evaluating probabilistic tsunami damage of a building using a method to estimate the uncertainty of the tsunami hazard with the Sagami trough earthquake by using the response surface method, which can be evaluated by suppressing the computation load and flexibly incorporating the uncertainty due to the probability distribution.
 As a result, we confirmed that the expectation of conditional damage of a steel building located on the Sagami Bay coast was estimated to be around 36.9%, and that we can evaluate the earthquake regions contributing to the extreme value of the frequency distribution of the tsunami inudation depth and the conditional excess probability distribution of the loss ratio of the building.