ESTIMATION OF CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SIMULTANEOUS OCCURRENCE OF MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT AND STORM SURGE DEVIATION AT ISE BAY BASED ON HINDCASTED RESULTS

Abstract

 Characteristics of a difference of peak time between wave heights and storm surge deviations during each storm at Ise Bay are discussed based on hourly hindcasts data during 67 typhoon and 37 non-typhoon storms in the past 45 years. Occurrence rates of the differences for the peak time are illustrated by histograms at selected 10 sights. The characteristics of the occurrence rates are distributed between three areas, Hamada and Fukue at southern coast sights, Nagoya and Mikawa at the inner sights of the bay and the other sights. As the waves at the inner sights require a longer developing time than the other sights, peak time of the wave heights at the inner sights is later than the storm surge deviations. Differences of the occurrence rate between the typhoon and the non-typhoon storms are not remarkable except the sights in Mikawa Bay which are affected strongly by western monsoon winds. And a rate that the peak of wave heights and that of storm surge deviations occurs simultaneously at Ise Bay is estimated to be approximately once every 6 years.