DEVELOPMENT OF BIAS CORRECTION METHOD FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES IN GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL AND FUTURE CHANGE PROJECTION OF STORM SURGE USING AMR MODEL

Abstract

 Studies on the impact assessment of global warming using typhoons calculated from climate models are being used for the future prediction. However, problems remains with the presence of bias in the climate simulation and high computational costs in long-term climate calculation. This study considers the method to correct the bias for the typhoon calculated by the global climate model (GCM) considering the observation data (IBTrACS) as true value. Then used this data after correction for the storm surge calclation model called Geoclaw. Geoclaw adopts the adaptive mesh refinement method (AMR) to optimize the size and the number of mesh in calculation to reduce the computational cost. The future change of the storm surge around Akinada will increase by 0.5 m and decrease around Osaka bay by 0.5 m.