Global Tropical Cyclone Track Detection and Analysis of the d4PDF Mega-ensemble Projection

Abstract

 A tropical cyclone (TC) dataset has been created for the d4PDF climate dataset. It contains 11,400 years of TC tracks (historic and future), which makes it possible to estimate 100 year or longer return values. The detection method uses wind speed and pressure difference threshold parameters and is tuned to optimize annual TC count and genesis latitude distributions. Tuning and validation of the method is conducted using 30-year IBTrACS observation and JRA-55 reanalysis data. An excessive number of TCs are detected in the d4PDF dataset in the Southern Hemisphere at higher poleward latitudes. However, the latitude distributions of decay location are improved and more TCs decay at higher poleward latitudes (a shortcoming of previous studies), making it possible to use the data for climate change impact assessments of coastal areas.