FUTURE CHANGE OF STORM SURGE CAUSED BY EXPLOSIVE CYCLONE IN NEMURO BAY USING D4PDF

Abstract

 In this study, we evaluated the impact of climate change on storm surge caused by explosive cyclone in Nemuro using the large ensemble climate prediction data (d4PDF) of present climate experiment 3,000 years (60 years × 50 members) and future climate experiment 5,400 years (60 years × 90 members). Although the mean of storm surge deviation was almost unchanged, the upper limit was increased by 7.2 %. In addition, it was showed that a large storm surge corresponding to 60 years of return period is likely to occur when explosive cyclone is located on the right side of Nemuro and the distribution of center position become wider and number also increases in the future.