SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF TSUNAMI HUMAN DAMAGE BY USING CROWDED EVACUATION MODEL

Abstract

 Human damage by tsunami should be evaluated accurately for considering tsunami countermeasure and corresponding risk of tsunami hazard but it is difficult because there are many parameters and condistions whch change human damage. As the elements changed, such as tsunami’s scale, occurring time and tidal level, and it was evaluated how tsunami human damage is changed by using crowded evacuation model in this study. The relationship between time distribution of tsunami inundation area and casualities increasing, the influence by the every elements and the interaction between the elements were considered. On the site of our case study, the change of tidal levels or evacuation condition caused by occurrence time, bring significant difference as same degree with tsunami scales or coastal protection devices on human damage. Evacuating to the non-wooden building with over 3 floor is effective for evacuees’ tentative behaivior because of it’s affectiveness for L2 tsunami and maintenace of evacuation route is also effective according to the simulation result on the situation the route becomed unavailable.