PESUDO PREDICTION EXPERIMENTS OF STORM SURGE AND WAVES IN 2018 TYPHOON JEBI BY HIGH RESOLUTION WEATHER PREDICTION AND COUPLED SURGE-WAVE MODEL

Abstract

 Using high-resolution numerical weather prediction model and coupled storm surges and waves, we conducted pseudo-prediction experiments on the maximum wind speed, maximum storm surge height, and maximum wave height for 2018 Typhoon Jebi. The central pressure and maximum wind speed of the typhoon become more accurate as the forecasting time length becomes shorter. The minimum central pressure and maximum wind speed of typhoon at landfall are reasonably estimated 3 days and 2.5 days before the landfall, respectively. In the 4 days length prediction, the peak appearance time of the event is estimated about 12 hours later, but the accuracy is increased as forecast length becomes shorter. The difference of the storm surge height between the prediction and hindcast is less than 0.5 m at the maximum. The reliable prediction of storm surge can be obtained from 2 days ago of landfall, quantitatively.