A STUDY ON COGNITIVE DISSONANCE IN EVACUATION BEHAVIOR DURING DISASTER OF STORM SURGE

Abstract

 Cognitive dissonance is one of the factors that inhibit evacuation during a disaster. The purpose of this study is to clarify the impact of cognitive dissonance on evacuation by using data obtained from questionnaire surveys on evacuation behavior at the time of the typhoon No. 21 (Jebi) storm surge disaster in 2018. The results of the questionnaire survey showed that few people actually evacuated despite being aware of the possibility of flooding, indicating that cognitive dissonance may have occurred. In addition, we developed a logit model of the choice of evacuation behavior and conducted a quantitative analysis of the impact of cognitive dissonance on evacuation behavior. The values of the parameters estimated by the analysis indicate that people unreasonably underestimated the probability of death or disaster occurrence. Therefore, cognitive dissonance was found to occur during the actual evacuation.