PROBABILISTIC TYPHOON MODEL BASED ON THE PASSED TYPHOON TRACK DATA WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE

Abstract

 To predict extreme storm surges with those probability due to extreme typhoons, this study examined capacity of the probabilistic typhoon models which developed by use of the passed typhoon best track in and around the target points of Tokyo, Ise and Osaka Bay in Japan. Though obtained results by the developed model were unclear on the relationship between passage target ranges and anormal storm surges, anormal storm surges became larger in each bay than those by the models which were developed by using whole typhoon best track data. In case the proposed probabilistic typhoon model takes the limit of central pressure degreasing over an open sea, the model is able to calculate realistic anormal storm surges.