PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT OF LANDSLIDE TSUNAMI IN PALU BAY, SULAWESI ISLAND

Abstract

 It is important to conduct a probablility assessment of landlslide tsunami, because dynamics of landslide tsunamis have uncertainties. However, practical applications for probabilistic framework of landslide tsunami have not been well established. The objective of this study is to propose a probabilistic assessment of landslide tsunami for Palu Bay, Sulawesi island, Indonesia. A Monte Carlo approach was employed to randomly generates a large number of landslide source models based on 2018 Palu tsunami data. Numerical simulations of landslide tsunami were also conducted by using the random models. Moreover, the concept of aleatory uncertainty among the probabilistic methods for earthquake tsunami which conventionally used in Japan and expected average interval of the earthquake were used to calculate a tsunami hazard curve. As a result, it was indicated that design tsunami height of 5 m in Palu city equivalent to reproduction periods of 100-200 years.