INVESTINGATION OF THE INFLUENCE OF TSUNAMI ARRIVAL TIME ACCURACY ON EVACUATION ROUTE SELECTION

Abstract

 In order to reduce human casualties from tsunamis, it is important to take soft measures in addition to hard measures. For safer evacuation, it is effective to consider the tsunami inundation area and the arrival-time of tsunamis. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to examine an influence of the tsunami arrival-time prediction error on the evacuation behavior. We conducted an evacuation simulation using the numerically calculated values and the arrival time of tsunamis predicted by the machine learning model. In the route selection method used in this study, the mortality rate increased as the evacuation start time became later due to the tsunami arrival time error, confirming the effect on evacuation behavior.