FUTURE CHANGE IN THE POSSIBLE STORM-SURGE LEVELS INDUCED BY EXPLOSIVE CYCLONES OF THE JAPAN-SEA AND PACIFIC-OCEAN TRAJECTORY TYPES

Abstract

 Although extratropical cyclogenesis is associated with the baroclinic instability, their explosive development is contributed by release of the latent heat in a moist air over the ocean. It is concerned that intensification of explosive cyclones occurs due to the rise in sea surface temperature in a future climate This study characterizes future change of the explosive cyclones classified by their trajectory types by using the data in the future climate database, d4PDF, and then discusses on the statistic surge level induced by the winter cyclones. The acceleration of the cyclone development might contribute to increase the static surge levels in a relatively low latitude area.