2024 Volume 50 Issue 3 Pages 2-15
It has been unclear why the concentrations of photochemical oxidants (Ox, almost Ozone) increased in the atmosphere despite the fact that the concentrations of the precursors, nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds, both decreased. We conducted multiple regression analysis using domestic supply of three fossil energy (coal, oil, and natural gas) over the past 40 years since 1981 as explanatory variables. As a result, we made it clear for the first time that it is possible to estimate national annual average of Ox level with high accuracy (adjusted R2: 0.842). We also confirmed that there was a strong correlation (R2: 0.806) between the national annual average of Ox indices and the asthma prevalence rate in schoolchildren during the same period. Furthermore, multiple regression analysis was conducted using the domestic supply of the three fossil energy by year as explanatory variables, and it was found that the national annual average prevalence rate of asthma in schoolchildren can be estimated with very high accuracy (adjusted R2: 0.940). This study suggests that reducing the domestic fossil energy supply leads to a decrease in Ox concentration, and is effective to decrease the asthma prevalence rate in schoolchildren.
