Normative Forecasting Model for Promoting National Shipping, Planning with the International Input-Output Analysis

Abstract

In this study, the authors propose a normative forecasting model for developing the national non-liner shipping in the developing countries. The model is composed of: 1) forecasting model for demand of marine transportation and 2) model for developing national fleet. In the forecasting model, an input-output analysis is applied for demand of marine transport because its intermediate demand is conformable to the transportation demand for non-liner shipping. By using an international input-output table, the trade of intermediate demand of a country concerned is evaluated, then it is converted into the origi-n-destination table in terms of ton-miles, National strategy on shipping should be evaluated by several criteria. In the model for developing national fleet, taking their importance into consideration, the following three criteria are introduced as objective functions, e.g. total investment in shipping, national share of marine transportation, and absorbing employment by national shipping and port & harbour sector. The above mutually conflicting considerations are to be built in a multi-objective optimization problem. The sequence of national share rate of marine transportation are the design variables. In this study, an interactive multi-objective programming method, that is an improvement of the surrogate worth trade-off method, is applied to search a preference solution systematically. To verify the idea, a case study is carried our for the case of Indonesia.