Forecast of peak dates of adult emergence of Helicoverpa armigera in Osaka Prefecture by using a simulation program based on the total effective temperature provided by JPP-NET

Abstract

A model to forecast the peak dates of adult emergence of the cotton bollworm, Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner), in Habikino City, Osaka Prefecture, was developed using a computer program provided by JPP-NET, which simulates seasonal changes in insect growth based on the total effective temperature. The model predicts that peak dates of H. armigera emergence in the city occur three to five days earlier as the annual air temperature rises by 0.5°C and that the number of H. armigera generations per year increases from four to five when the annual air temperature rises by at least 1.0°C compared to the average annual air temperature between 1981 and 2010.