A Mixed Probability Distribution Function and Modified Orthogonal Decomposition for Typhoon Simulation

Abstract

A mixed probability distribution function (MPDF) was proposed for typhoon simulation, which is applicable to any locations by changing a weighted parameter. A modified orthogonal decomposition (MOD) was also proposed to simultaneously reproduce probability-distributions of typhoon parameters and their correlations. The annual maximum wind speeds at the five typical sites in Japan simulated with the proposed methods showed favorable agreements with the observations, while the conventional methods overestimated those for the long-term return period.