Difficulties in making renewable energy a mainstay

―Approach from Kaya identity―

Abstract

Net Zero 2050, published by the IEA, calls for achieving carbon neutrality between 2011 and 2050. In this scenario, the share of fossil energy in primary energy goes from 79% to 18% and the share of renewable

energy (including hydropower) goes from 16% to 70%. This scenario is simulated using backcasting. This paper uses Kaya Identity and energy and economic statistics to show the difficulty of achieving NET ZERO in 2050. From a power engineering perspective, the paper shows the difficulty of using renewable energy as the main primary energy source. Finally, it shows that after the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, it is important for Japan to go back to the basics of energy security.

Key words: NET Zero 2050, Kaya identity, Renewable Energy, Economic security, Energy security