Dyadic Relationships between Russia and the Other Post-Soviet States: United We Stand or Divided We Stand?

Abstract

The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 caused the emergence of 15 new sovereign states. Many quickly gathered into the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), but this regional organization was soon recognized as a kind of loose “clasp.” A few years later, the region started splitting up into pro-and anti-Russia groups. The Pro-Russia group, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Russia itself, signed the Collective Security Treaty, and then formed the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). At the same time, the anti-Russia group worked within a coalition to escape Russia's influence. These states, Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Moldova, formed a strategic alignment called GUAM. When Uzbekistan joined, it was renamed GUUAM. The Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) belong to neither of the two groups, but are members of the pro-Western Community of Democratic Choice (CDC), which includes GUUAM's Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova.
I investigate the conditions under which the non-Russian post-Soviet states (NRPSSs) went their separate ways and have remained in separate camps since the 1990s. Though previous studies deal with the states individually as well as the whole region, they seem to center on overviews of the area or qualitative case studies and pay little attention to utilization of quantitative research methods. Therefore, using the statistical-analytical approach, I try to identify the causes.
I posit three premises. First, Russia and the NRPSSs make up a community. Second, there exist asymmetrical relationships between Russia and the NRPSSs. Third, and most importantly, Russia always seeks to influence these relationships. My research thus intends to focus on the behavior of the NRPSSs and to incorporate the existing literature of alliance formation and management.
I conduct two kinds of analysis. The dependent variables are firstly whether the NRPSSs have joined CSTO and, secondly whether they have joined GU (U) AM. The independent variables draw from not only empirical evidence from inherently regional phenomena but also some hypotheses in International Relations. These variables are multi-level stratified: Russia, the NRPSSs, and the dyad relationship between Russia and the NRPSSs. They, further, divide the political/military dimension into an economic one.
Results show some important facts. First, when relations between Russia and Europe get worse, the NRPSSs are likely to unite with Russia. Second, the less democratic and the more recessionary the NRPSSs are, the more pro-Russia they are. Last, acts of terrorism within Russia have a negative effect on the formation and maintenance of anti-Russia alliance.