Deployments of the International Relations around the Caspian Sea Energy-development: the End of the 1st Stage of the Geopolitical Disputes

Central Asia and the Caucasus

Abstract

The development of hydrocarbon resources in the Caspian Sea area inevitably takes on “geopolitical character”, for the exploitation of transportation routes is indispensable for furthering development, and coordination of interests of many countries concerned is required to realize the new export pipelines. Furthermore, the problem concerning the legal status of the Caspian Sea, which emerged with the dissolution of USSR, becomes an additional geopolitical obstacle for energy development and transportation in this area.
In real construction of the energy transportation way from the Caspian Sea, the routes via Russia preceded the non-Russian routes, mainly because of 1) a gradual change of Russian policy on the Caspian energy development & transportation from an oppressive one to cooperative, and 2) the relatively small construction cost of Russian routes. On the other hand, unreliability of resource bases for the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline (BTC), a symbolic non-Russian route, delayed its realization in spite of the strong back up of the U. S. government. It was in September, 2002, when at last BTC's construction started, helped by some supportive factors like the discovery of huge hydrocarbon reserves at the Kashagan field in the Kazakh offshore area, etc.
The operation of BTC will put “a primary period” on the past geopolitical disputes concerning the Caspian Sea resources. Emergence of the non-Russian route with the transportation capacity equal to the Russian routes will realize “diversification of energy export routes”, the long-cherished wish of the Caspian oil producing countries and the foreign investors concerned.
In addition, demarcation of the Caspian seabed with subsoil resources was completed in the northern area by the protocol signed in May, 2003, by three coastal countries including Russia. This means the principle to use the Caspian subsoil resources is determined in the way of division to the national sectors, therefore it is not too much to say that the issue of the legal status of the Caspian Sea will not be able to have any further real influence upon the subsoil development, even though this problem is not to be “finally” solved until the comprehensive five-national convention is materialized.
Thus the gravity of geopolitical dynamics is fading in the Caspian energy development issues under current circumstances, a substantial raise of the oil production projection caused by discovery of Kashagan, however, increased possibility of the China route's construction, which would add a new geopolitical factor to the context.