2025 Volume 21 Issue 3 Pages 118-125
When we apply conventional LCA methodologies to emerging technology, future changes in emission intensities and societal structures are expected to significantly affect assessment outcomes. Future-oriented LCA aims to address this by evaluating emerging technologies under projected future conditions. This involves estimating future foreground data that reflects technological maturity, adapting background data based on future scenarios, and considering future-relevant impact assessment methods. Foreground data often requires expert-based modeling or process simulation. Background data must account for changes in energy systems, material flows, and production structures. Scenario-based approaches help align inventories with possible futures, but new scenarios may be needed when assessed technologies influence societal systems. In impact assessment, the development of future characterization factors remains limited, with most efforts focused on a few impact categories. Currently, no standardized framework exists, and common terminology and methodologies are not yet ready. Further research may contribute to providing flexible, consistent approaches that support custom scenario design, ensure alignment between assumptions and data, and enhance transparency. Developing practical tools and guidance will be key to enabling meaningful and robust assessments under future conditions.
