Precise Orbit Prediction of Space Debris and Appropriate Direction of Ablation Recoil

Abstract

Even space debris smaller than 10 cm can cause fatal damage to satellites. The number of such “lethal nontrackable” objects is estimated to be over a million. A laser-based active debris removal method can solve this problem. In this study, we show that the error in orbit prediction can be at most 2 cm in 30 seconds. We also show that taking the Moon’s gravity into account to the trajectory calculation improves the orbit prediction error about 20%. We also discuss the direction of the ablation recoil force. This direction is shown to be critical to the success of debris removal.