Marketer’s Prediction of Consumer Preferences at Idea Screening:

Suppression of Individual Preference to Avoid the False Consensus Effect

Abstract

Can marketers accurately predict consumer preferences for new products? Accurate prediction of these preferences are important in new product development, but prior research has shown that marketers’ predictions may not be accurate. This paper aims to review research on the False Consensus Effect (FCE) in predicting consumer preferences and contribute to improving the accuracy of marketers’ predictions of these preferences. FCE is a cognitive bias that causes consumers to project their individual preferences for a product. Marketers’ predictions in which FCE occurs have large errors for actual consumer preferences and lead to undesirable decisions, such as the continued development of unattractive new products. In this paper, we describe “empathy with consumers” and “customer orientation” as factors that cause FCE that have been identified in marketing research, and the details of “individual preference suppression,” which is a method for avoidance of FCE. However, many remaining issues exist in the study of FCE in marketing research. Finally, we contribute to this research area by suggesting directions for future research in terms of individual preference suppression, predicted consumer attributes, the accuracy of measuring consumer preferences, and the characteristics of marketers.