FUTURE CHANGE IN OCCURRENCE FREQUENCY OF WIND VELOCITY DURING NORMAL CONDITIONS BY WRF

Abstract

Meteorological simulations were conducted using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) in the 2000s and 2050s. The simulation for the future climate was conducted using a pseudo global warming method. The initial and boundary data for future climates were generated by adding the difference between the current and the future climates to the current climate. Firstly, the validation was performed by comparing the observed data by the Japanese Meteorological Agency at Tokyo District Meteorological Observatory with the simulated results for the 2000s at the exact location. It was confirmed that the occurrence frequencies of wind velocity could be generally reproduced by WRF. Secondly, changes in occurrence frequency and Weibull parameters of wind velocity between the 2000s and the 2050s simulated by WRF were evaluated at points in several cities. In a city located in the coastal area, the occurrence frequency of weak wind was increased and Weibull parameters were smaller in the 2050s, while in cities located in the relatively inland area, the occurrence frequency of wind velocity in the 2050s was almost the same as that in the 2000s.