Theoretical and Applied Mechanics Japan
Online ISSN : 1349-4244
Print ISSN : 1348-0693
ISSN-L : 1348-0693
III. APPLICATION FOR NATURAL DISASTER MITIGATION AND MAINTENANCE
Earthquake Forecasting System Based on Sequential Data Assimilation of Slip on the Plate Boundary
Takane HORIShin’ichi MIYAZAKIMamoru HYODORyoko NAKATAYoshiyuki KANEDA
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2014 Volume 62 Pages 179-189

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Abstract

An earthquake forecasting system based on sequential data assimilation of slip on the plate boundary is constructed. Sequential Importance Sampling, a type of particle filter, is used for the data assimilation. A forward calculation is made using an earthquake generation cycle simulation. From the simulation results, we estimate crustal deformation that can be compared with observations of the GNSS Earth Observation Network System (GEONET) on land and the Dense Ocean Floor Network for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (DONET) on the seafloor. We demonstrate a numerical test of this system using synthetic data of seafloor deformation before virtual Nankai earthquakes. We also use a real GEONET data set to compare the results of earthquake generation cycles.

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© 2014 by National Committee for IUTAM
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