Predictive Factors for Diabetes Development in Ningen Dock Examinees with Very Mild Glucose Intolerance

Abstract

Objective: This study aimed to identify predictive factors for diabetes development in Ningen Dock examinees with very mild glucose intolerance.

Methods: We retrospectively analyzed medical records, interview responses, and Ningen Dock results of 11,313 examinees from April 2015 to March 2016 and followed them until March 2021.

Results: Over five years, 2.6% of examinees were newly diagnosed with diabetes. Those who developed diabetes had statistically significantly higher median age, body weight, and BMI compared to those who did not develop diabetes (p<0.001). Almost all laboratory values, including FPG and HbA1c, were worse in the former group. When their FPG and HbA1c levels were not high (Ningen Dock category A or B), their incidence rate of developing diabetes over the next five years was extremely low (0.09–0.7%). We conducted multivariate analysis regarding predictive factors for the development of diabetes among examinees in Ningen Dock category B, which identified BMI ≥25 kg/m² (OR 5.356, p<0.001), LDL-C ≥140 mg/dL (OR 2.415, p=0.023), smoking (OR 2.320, p=0.042), and family history of diabetes (OR 2.510, p=0.016) as significant predictive factors. The incidence rate of developing diabetes over the next five years increased from 0.7% to 12.5% when these predictive factors were present.

Conclusions: FPG and HbA1c levels are the most important variables in predicting the development of diabetes. However, individuals with multiple risk factors should be carefully monitored for the development of diabetes, even if their FPG and HbA1c levels are not high.