1978 Volume 75 Issue 10 Pages 1575-1584
In order to presume the prognosis of recurrent duodenal ulcer the stochastic theory of the "Markov's Process" was applied to the 182 recurrent duodenal ulcer patients in whom endoscopic changes of ulcer could be followed. The "transitional probability" in the "Markov's Process" were derived from the results in the first and second years of retrospective study. The expected"transitional probability" obtained by the method of "homogeneous Markov's chain" were fully coincided with the observed values in each year. On the basis of these results, the prognosis of recurrent duodenal ulcers was estimated in the further period.
In the period after the sixth year, linear ulcer would be the most presumed figure in the three types of recurrent duodenal ulcers. And fifty percent of all patients with duodenal ulcer would have linear or multiple ulcers in the sixth year.
These results were obtained from the presumption that recurrence in recurrent duodenal ulcer patients could contiue in any case.
Nippon Shokakibyo Gakkai Zasshi
Nippon Shokakibyo Gakkai Zasshi Kou
