The Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model: a point-process model for representing a cluster process

Abstract

The Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model proposed by Prof. Ogata is a point-process model representing a temporal or spatio-temporal pattern of earthquake occurrence. This model is widely recognized and applied in various scientific fields, such as medical science, social science, economics, and ecology, in addition to earth science. Forecasting systems for future earthquakes and crimes based on this model have been implemented and used in Japan, the United States, and Europe. Following the progress of point-process studies, particularly for a spatio-temporal point pattern, the ETAS model will be more widely used, and the forecasting through this model will impact our society.