A Note on Density Forecasting of Hornets, Vespa spp.

Abstract

A predictive estimation of the population density of the hornets, Vespa was carried out using multiple regression in order to obtain a basic information of the countermeasure against the hornet.
The number of consultations from the citizen was used for the criterion variable.
The total rainfall in July of preceding year, and the average temperature in November of the preceding year and/or that in April of the same year, was selected for the explanatory variable. Three multiple regression models were statistically established based on the data accumulated from 1988 to 1994, from 1988 to 1995 and from 1988 to 1996.
The three multiple regression models, which established using two explanatory variables, i.e., the total rainfall in July and the average temperature in November of the preceding year, were found to give a high predictability, (coefficient of determination; 0.81〜0.83). The number of consultations predicted for 1997 were 3,530, 3,530 and 3,390, respectively.