Abstract
In Japan, the demand-following approach to parking development has led to an oversupply of parking spaces, creating a supply-demand mismatch that contributes to urban problems such as the fragmentation of the urban landscape and a loss of vibrancy. However, a theoretical framework for managing demand by capping supply is yet to be established, and the actual supply-demand conditions in metropolitan suburbs have not been sufficiently examined. Therefore, this study aims to quantitatively evaluate the parking supply and demand in the central urban areas of three cities in the Tokyo suburbs. It introduces the “desirable car modal share”—a new evaluation axis that considers the realization of an ideal transport system and upper-level policy goals—to examine the effectiveness and challenges of implementing supply-managed parking cap policies. The analysis confirmed a state of oversupply in the target areas, wherein supply significantly exceeds demand even during peak holiday periods. Furthermore, an evaluation of demand reduction potential based on the “desirable car modal share” indicates that a policy of “increasing the public transport modal share on holidays to match weekday levels” has particularly high potential. The results suggest that the proposed methodology serves as an effective tool for concretely examining supply-managed parking cap policies in metropolitan suburbs.
