Abstract
Previous studies on the economic impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake have mainly focused on short-term or limited damage, potentially leading to an underestimation of the overall scale. This study re-evaluates the economic damage by examining the trends in GRP, subtracting reconstruction project costs, in Iwate, Miyagi, and Fukushima prefectures, and comparing this with national GDP growth. It estimates the cumulative economic damage up to 2018, a year when detailed data on reconstruction fund distribution became available. The study also hypothesizes the recovery trajectory similar to that of the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake, estimating the cumulative damage and the completion year for reconstruction. The findings suggest that the cumulative damage in these three prefectures by 2018 was approximately 51.0 trillion yen, with an estimated total of about 59.7 trillion yen over an 18-year recovery period. The study particularly emphasizes the severe damage in Fukushima Prefecture, underscoring the importance of ongoing support.
