Estimation of Probable Maximum Wave Height in the Sea Areas around Japan Based on Simulations of Typhoon-and Low-pressure-Generated Waves

Abstract

This paper presents an estimate of probable maximum wave height (PMWH) generated by typhoons and low pressure systems on the Northwestern Pacific Ocean and the Japan Sea. Typhoons and lows are generated over a period of 100, 000 years using a Monte-Carlo simulation model, and the wind and wave computations are conducted for each of a large number of selected intense typhoons and lows. The analyses show that the typhoon-generated PMWH exceeds 26 m at a sea area near Shikoku Island facing the Pacific Ocean and that the low-pressure- generated PMWH is above 26 m at an eastern sea area far from East Japan. Those PMWHs are 7 to 13 m greater than the maximum wave heights generated by historical typhoons and lows in the recent decades.