Abstract
While a typhoon is approaching, the necessity of disaster prevention works in ports is often judged from the highest storm water level in the storm surge simulation for several probable typhoon tracks. Since the actual water level seldom reaches the highest one predicted, the accumulation of such an experience causes carelessness in persons in charge of disaster prevention. The probability density distribution of the storm water level predicted is useful information for them to estimate the possibility of disaster in their ports. This study, therefore, simulated the storm surge in Seto Inland Sea for 109 typhoon tracks crossing or passing by the prediction circle of typhoon location and then discussed on the variation of the range and the accumulative probability density distribution of the storm water level with lead time until the typhoon arrival.
