Abstract
The objective of this paper is to carry out a review of mitigation scenarios and update the current Emissions Scenarios Database, which is utilized for discussions in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report [IPCC AR4]. By updating the current emissions scenarios database, it becomes available to analyze various new mitigation scenarios since the IPCC Third Assessment Report [IPCC AR4]. In this paper, quantitative analyses on GDP, population, carbon intensity, energy intensity and carbon tax are conducted at the regional level in SRES 4 regional aggregations as well as at the global level.
As the result of reviewing post-SRES mitigation scenarios, it is found that there is a large range of emissions trajectories. The Maximum extent of mitigation of the global CO2 emission from baseline in 2100 is around 95%. There is a strong correlation between GDP growth and energy intensity improvement. Higher GDP growth leads to energy intensity improvement, especially in the developing regions. With regard to the relation between energy intensity improvement and carbon intensity reduction, in the developing regions, energy intensity improvement is relatively larger than carbon intensity reduction in the first half of the 21st century, but the trend is shifted toward the latter half of the 21st century and carbon intensity reduction becomes dominant in the latter half of the century. When the same rate of carbon tax is imposed, the effects of CO2 mitigation vary widely across regions.
In conclusion, various scenario characteristics and relationships between baseline scenarios and mitigation scenarios are quantitatively analyzed in this paper, from various aspects based on the updated Emissions Scenarios Database.
