Abstract
A stochastic typhoon model, simulating typhoon parameters with the Monte Carlo method, has been developed based on statistics of the actual typhoons in the present climate. The other model simulating typhoon parameters in a future possible climate under global warming was also developed based on a correlation analysis of the plane distributions of typhoon statistics between these climates provided by the JMA-RCM20 Model. The parameters of typhoons during a long period were determined with these models and the storm surges in Seto Inland Sea were computed with a numerical storm surge model. Then the 10 to 1, 000-year-return storm surges and tidal levels were compared between these climates. The result shows that the global warming effect in typhoon occurrence characteristics would magnify the storm surges and that both the effect and mean sea level rise would increase the tidal levels.
