Abstract
A new method is developed in order to track and predict in short-term (15min-2 hr lead times) the spatial configurations, the velocity vectors and the rain intensity textures of the potentially flood producing rain fields that are detected on a radar scope. First, the rain field is decomposed into simple, tractable elements. Then a statistical adaptive forecasting scheme is developed in order to predict the evolution of each of these elements in time and space. The composition of these elements forms the complete rain field with respect to its spatial configuration, location and rain intensity texture at each prediction lead time. The method is currently being applied to the radar data of rain fields. Some preliminary application results are given.
