On the style of the on-line rainfall-runoff forecasting information

Abstract

Although the methodology of the on-line rainfall-runoff forecasting has been established basically, there are still many important problems when it is really utilized in river management offices.
This paper especially focuses on the problem that the style of on-line rainfall-runoff forecasting information should be easy to be woven into existing management systems, and provides a new algorithm of on-line forecasting for it.
Our method can give the information on the whole hydrograph including the probability that the time to peak of discharge has passed the current time, the probability distribution of the total volume of future discharge, the probability that flood will surpass the warning water level, and the probability distribution of flood peak time and peak volume.