Prediction of conditional probabilities of runoff and water storage at a flood control reservoir given several hour lead forecasted rainfall

Abstract

Conditional probability distributions of runoff discharge and water storage at a flood control reservoir given several hour lead forecasted rainfall intensities are theoretically derived using expectation techniques on the linearized relationship of storage function between rainfall and runoff intensities and on the relationship between runoff (inflow), outflow, and water storage of the flood control reservior. By simulation based on this theory, significance of rainfall forecasts with various levels of accuracy is investigated.