Short-term Prediction of Water Quality in Eutrophic Waters

Abstract

It is commonly thought that eutrophication seldom occurs in water areas, such as rivers and lakes, in snowy cold regions because of the climatic conditions. However, this does not apply to water areas where the nutrient load is high and where the streams have stagnated.
To cope with unusual phenomena in such water areas, such as water bloom, it is necessary to measure water temperatures and observe chlorophyll-a concentrations continuously to make short-term predictions a few day later.
In this report, we try to predict the water quality after a few days using online information about chlorophyll-a concentrations from hourly measurements of the water temperature and by using a fluorescence spectrophotometer. Also, the weather forecast of the week and the Kalman filter are applied to the ecosystem model of water quality.
As a result, we confirm that it is possible to predict changes in chlorophyll-a.