1996 Volume 40 Pages 219-223
The river bed variation is a natural process. In the master plan, though the river bed and the water surface stage is shown to have a smooth profile and the safety measures are taken accordingly but in reality the case is not exactly so. The natural variation of the bed level from such smoothness in the longitudinal direction in a 13akm reach of Kinu river was analyzed. Through the 1-D steady flow simulation the associated variation in the water surface stage was analyzed. The subsequent probability of water surface to overtop the design levee height is near 1%. Such consequences should also be taken into account in the reliability analysis of flooding.