A study on prediction error in radar rainfall forecasting and its application to on-line operation of a detention storage

Abstract

Detention storages work for inundation contorol and water quality contorol. First flush is stored in the storage, treated after a rainfall event, and released to public water bodies like lakes, rivers, bays, etc. When rainfall forecasting by a radar is available and once a severe rainfall event is predicted, some amount of the stored first flush can be pre-released, and the resultant vacant capacity can be used for peak cut of the severe rainfall runoff to eliminate or reduce inundation volume. However large estimation error is inevitable in rainfall forecasting. In this paper, a basic study on on-line pre-release operation of a detention storage is reported, taking account of the large estimation error.