A Study on Estimation for Short Duration PMP Which Takes Account of Rainfall Potential

Abstract

In urbanized areas, heavy rainfall in short periods of time and in small areas can potentially result in extreme damage. It is important, therefore to estimate the short duration PMP (Probable Maximum Precipitation) which takes heavy rainfall into consideration when planning for river management in or near urbanized areas. In this study, traditional methods for PMP estimation are reviewed, and a new method for short duration PMP estimation, which uses a one-dimensional cumulonimbus model developed by Ferrier and Houze, is proposed. In this method the authors introduce the concept of rainfall potential which allows for the analysis of heavy rainfall. Finally, we show the capabilities of the newly proposed method.