A STUDY OF ACCURACY AND POTENTIAL PREDICTABILITY OF SEASONAL PREDICTION OF WATER RESOURCES BASED ON ATMOSPHERIC SEASONAL FORECAST EXPERIMENTS

Abstract

Interannual variability and potential predictability of seasonal mean water resources is investigated based on the SST-forced ensemble seasonal atmospheric forecast using Japan Meteorological Agency global model. The ensemble consists of four model integrations with different atmospheric initial conditions with the same sea surface temperature. The interannual variability of water resources (residual of Precipitation to Evapration: P-E) are not simulated well especially for the rainy season over the selected four regions of Asia. Howere, the ensemble mean of the seasonal atmospheric forecast could contribute to the seasonal water resources at some regions. The potential predictability of P-E is largely low at the land areas in from mid-to high-latitude. It is lower than that of precipitation in North Africa and central Eurasia continents.