ESTIMATION OF LONG TERM WAVE CONDITIONS IN TOKYO BAY

Abstract

Wave hindcasting at each of 5 points located in Tokyo Bay area is conducted consecutively over a year period of 26 years from 1979 to 2004 using a backward ray tracing model on a nested grid with very high space resolution. Hourly wind distribution is provided with the ECMWF analysis/reanalysis surface winds-based data set in the open sea and the measurement winds-based data set in the nearshore area including Tokyo Bay. Comparison between hindcasts and measurements is made for both time variation of waves and wave climatic parameters. The main conclusions are that the model gives reasonable estimates for the wave height conditions in the inner bay area and that the model demands an input wind data with an improved time resolution in the open ocean for a better evaluation of wave conditions in the outer bay area.