PROBABILISTIC EVALUATION OF WAVE OVERTOPPING RATES WITH A STOCHASTIC LOW PRESSURE MODEL

Abstract

Quantitative estimation of seawater flowing into hinterland due to high tide levels and high waves is necessary for risk assessment of storm surge floods. Since wave overtopping is caused by a combination of high tide levels and high waves, their concurrent probability should be taken into account for probabilistic evaluation of wave overtopping rates. Besides this, rates of wave overtopping from low pressures have not been evaluated probabilistically.
In this study, the Monte Carlo method was used to obtain data sets of wave overtopping rates long enough for extreme statistics analysis. A stochastic low pressure model was set up through an analysis on observed low pressures, long-term simulation of low pressures was conducted, and extreme statistics analysis of wave overtopping rates was conducted.