A BAU Scenario of Consumption and Production in 2030′s Southeast Asia

包 闖; 木下 裕介; 梅田 靖; 松本 光崇; 小島 道一

doi:10.11522/pscjspe.2017S.0_905

2017 JSPE Spring Conference

Session ID : O15

DOI https://doi.org/10.11522/pscjspe.2017S.0_905

Conference information

Host: The Japan Society for Precision Engineering

Name : 2017 JSPE Spring Conference

Date : March 13, 2017 - March 15, 2017

A BAU Scenario of Consumption and Production in 2030′s Southeast Asia

*Chuang Bao, Yusuke Kishita, Yasushi Umeda, Mitsutaka Matsumoto, Michikazu Kojima

Author information

Keywords: Southeast Asia, Scenario

CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS FREE ACCESS

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Abstract

The objective of this research is to develop visions of SCP (Sustainable Consumption and Production) in Southeast Asia region. As the first step, this paper focuses on describing a BAU (Business-as-usual) scenario, which shows what will happen in 2030 if the present trend continues. In this paper, we evaluated the consumption of several kinds of consumer durables using two models, i.e., Bass model and exponential approximation model. The results revealed that the demand of consumer durables in Thailand and Vietnam increases up to 10 times towards 2030, compared to 2015.

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