GUESSING SEQUENCE UNDER VARIOUS CONDITIONS OF PAYOFF

MASANAO TODA

doi:10.4992/psycholres1954.1956.4_11

MASANAO TODA

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1956 Volume 1956 Issue 4 Pages 11-22

DOI https://doi.org/10.4992/psycholres1954.1956.4_11

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Published: 1956 Received: - Available on J-STAGE: February 24, 2009 Accepted: - Advance online publication: - Revised: -
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Date of correction: February 24, 2009 Reason for correction: - Correction: ABSTRACT Details: Wrong : Four groups of Ss were required to predict on each of 101 trials which one of the two alternative symbols would appear on that trial. The symbol series used was the same for all groups, a random series of probabilities .75 and .25. The four groups were different in the degree of strength of the experimental condition-the utility payoffthat forced Ss to adopt the “maximizing hits” strategy. Ss of group 1 were paid 150 yens in advance and were instructed only to predict. Ss of group 2 were made to compete among them for the numbers of hits and were paid 150 yens after the experiment. Ss of group 3 were paid 3 yens on every hit. Ss of group 4 were paid 10 yens on every hit and fined 10 yens on every miss.
The results were as follows
1. The order of guessing ratios of the four groups was the same as the order of the utility payoff in the final twenty-trial block, where the guessing ratios of the first three groups seemed to reach their asymptotes and that of the group 4 seemed still increasing. This result was essentially in accord with Goodnow's result.
2. The differing utility payoff had influence not upon the slope of guessing curves but on their period of reaching the asymptote ; the greater the payoff, the later the period.
3. The analysis of sequential dependency of Ss' predictions produced the comparable result to Hake and Hyman's. The sequential dependency was significant in the later trial blocks, but in the final block it became insignificant for the groups 3 and 4, whereas still significant for the groups 1 and 2.
4. Concerning this dependency, not only PRC (R), the conditional probability of predicting the symbol “right” when the preceding prediction was correctly “right, ” that was dealt with by Hake and Hyman, but also every other conditional probability was calculated. Among them PRC(R) and PLI(R) showed typical learning curves, whereas the other two showed no systematic change during the experiment. For those hidden complexity of human Ss' guessing behavior, a possible explanation from the standpoint of the theory of decision making was pointed out.

Date of correction: February 24, 2009 Reason for correction: - Correction: CITATION Details: Wrong : 1) Edwards, W.: The theory of decision making. Psychol. Bull., 1954, 51, 380-417.
2) Goodnow, J. J.: Determinants of choice distributions in two-choice probability situations. Anger. J. Psychol., 1955, 68, 106-116.
3) Goodnow, J. J., & Postman, L.: Probability learning in a problem-solving situation. J. exp. Psychol., 1955, 49, 16
4) Grant, D. A., Hake, H. W., & Hornseth, J. P.: Acquisition and extinction of a verbal conditioned response with differing percentages of reinforcement. J. exp. Psychol., 1951, 42, 1-5.
5) Hake, H. W., & Hyman, R.: Perception of the statistical structure of a random series of binary symbols. J.exp. Psychol., 1953, 45, 64-74.
6) Humphreys, L. G.: Acquisition and extinction of verbal expectations in a situation analogous to conditioning. J.exp. Psychol., 1939, 25, 294-301.
7) Jarvik, M. E.: Probability learning and a negative recency effect in the serial anticipation of alternative symbols. J. exp. Psychol., 1951, 41, 291-297.
8) Kendall, M. G.: Rank correlation methods. 1948, London: Charles Griffin.
9) Miller, G. A., & Frick, F. C.: Statistical behavioristics and sequences of responses. Psychol. Rev., 1949, 56, 311-324.
10*) Toda, M.: Mathematical study of elementary behavioristics. Jap. J. Psychol., 1951. 21. 38-48.
11*) Toda, M.: Outline of a theory of decision making. The Annual Reports on Cultural Science, The Faculty of Literature, Hokkaido Universiky. (In press.)
12*) Toda, M., & Ota, H .: An experimental study of the interrelationship between the two methods of measuring the sequence of values of subjective inference, i, e., the game-method and the guessing-method. Jap. J. Psychol., 1955, 25, 265-269.
13**) Umeoka, Y., &. Toda, M.: Hito no yosoku no sokudo to shiteno gesshingu keiretsu no datosei ni kansuru jikkenteki kento. (Abstruct) Jap. J. Psychol., 1954, 25, 16-17. Japanese text with English abstract. Japanese abstract.

Right : 1) Edwards, W.: The theory of decision making. Psychol. Bull., 1954, 51, 380-417.
2) Goodnow, J. J.: Determinants of choice distributions in two-choice probability situations. Amer. J. Psychol., 1955, 68, 106-116.
3) Goodnow, J. J., & Postman, L.: Probability learning in a problem-solving situation. J. exp. Psychol., 1955, 49, 16-22.
4) Grant, D. A., Hake, H. W., & Hornseth, J. P.: Acquisition and extinction of a verbal conditioned response with differing percentages of reinforcement. J. exp. Psychol., 1951, 42, 1-5.
5) Hake, H. W., & Hyman, R.: Perception of the statistical structure of a random series of binary symbols. J. exp. Psychol., 1953, 45, 64-74.
6) Humphreys, L. G.: Acquisition and extinction of verbal expectations in a situation analogous to conditioning. J. exp. Psychol., 1939, 25, 294-301.
7) Jarvik, M. E.: Probability learning and a negative recency effect in the serial anticipation of alternative symbols. J. exp. Psychol., 1951, 41,291-297.
8) Kendall, M. G.: Rank correlation methods. 1948, London: Charles Griffin.
9) Miller, G. A., & Frick, F. C.: Statistical behavioristics and sequences of responses. Psychol. Rev., 1949, 56, 311-324.
10*) Toda, M.: Mathematical study of elementary behavioristics. Jap. J. Psychol., 1951. 21. 38-48.
11*) Toda, M.: Outline of a theory of decision making. The Annual Reports on Cultural Science, The Faculty of Literature, Hokkaido Universiky. (In press.)
12*) Toda, M., & Ota, H.: An experimental study of the interrelationship between the two methods of measuring the sequence of values of subjective inference, i. e., the game-method and the guessing-method. Jap. J. Psychol., 1955, 25, 265-269.
13**) Umeoka, Y., & Toda, M.: Hito no yosoku no sokudo to shiteno gesshingu keiretsu no datosei ni kansuru jikkenteki kento. (Abstruct) Jap. J. Psychol., 1954, 25, 16-17.

Date of correction: February 24, 2009 Reason for correction: - Correction: PDF FILE Details: -

Date of correction: February 24, 2009 Reason for correction: - Correction: CITATION Details: Wrong : 1) Edwards, W.: The theory of decision making. Psychol. Bull., 1954, 51, 380-417.
2) Goodnow, J. J.: Determinants of choice distributions in two-choice probability situations. Amer. J. Psychol., 1955, 68, 106-116.
3) Goodnow, J. J., & Postman, L.: Probability learning in a problem-solving situation. J. exp. Psychol., 1955, 49, 16-22.
4) Grant, D. A., Hake, H. W., & Hornseth, J. P.: Acquisition and extinction of a verbal conditioned response with differing percentages of reinforcement. J. exp. Psychol., 1951, 42, 1-5.
5) Hake, H. W., & Hyman, R.: Perception of the statistical structure of a random series of binary symbols. J. exp. Psychol., 1953, 45, 64-74.
6) Humphreys, L. G.: Acquisition and extinction of verbal expectations in a situation analogous to conditioning. J. exp. Psychol., 1939, 25, 294-301.
7) Jarvik, M. E.: Probability learning and a negative recency effect in the serial anticipation of alternative symbols. J. exp. Psychol., 1951, 41,291-297.
8) Kendall, M. G.: Rank correlation methods. 1948, London: Charles Griffin.
9) Miller, G. A., & Frick, F. C.: Statistical behavioristics and sequences of responses. Psychol. Rev., 1949, 56, 311-324.
10*) Toda, M.: Mathematical study of elementary behavioristics. Jap. J. Psychol., 1951. 21. 38-48.
11*) Toda, M.: Outline of a theory of decision making. The Annual Reports on Cultural Science, The Faculty of Literature, Hokkaido Universiky. (In press.)
12*) Toda, M., & Ota, H.: An experimental study of the interrelationship between the two methods of measuring the sequence of values of subjective inference, i. e., the game-method and the guessing-method. Jap. J. Psychol., 1955, 25, 265-269.
13**) Umeoka, Y., & Toda, M.: Hito no yosoku no sokudo to shiteno gesshingu keiretsu no datosei ni kansuru jikkenteki kento. (Abstruct) Jap. J. Psychol., 1954, 25, 16-17.

Right : 1) Edwards, W.: The theory of decision making. Psychol. Bull., 1954, 51, 380-417.
2) Goodnow, J. J.: Determinants of choice distributions in two-choice probability situations. Amer. J. Psychol., 1955, 68, 106-116.
3) Goodnow, J. J., & Postman, L.: Probability learning in a problem-solving situation. J. exp. Psychol., 1955, 49, 16-22.
4) Grant, D. A., Hake, H. W., & Hornseth, J. P.: Acquisition and extinction of a verbal conditioned response with differing percentages of reinforcement. J. exp. Psychol., 1951, 42, 1-5.
5) Hake, H. W., & Hyman, R.: Perception of the statistical structure of a random series of binary symbols. J. exp. Psychol., 1953, 45, 64-74.
6) Humphreys, L. G.: Acquisition and extinction of verbal expectations in a situation analogous to conditioning. J. exp. Psychol., 1939, 25, 294-301.
7) Jarvik, M. E.: Probability learning and a negative recency effect in the serial anticipation of alternative symbols. J. exp. Psychol., 1951, 41,291-297.
8) Kendall, M. G.: Rank correlation methods. 1948, London: Charles Griffin.
9) Miller, G. A., & Frick, F. C. Statistical behavioristics and sequences of responses. Psychol. Rev., 1949, 56,311-324.
10) Toda, M. Mathematical study of elementary behavioristics. Jap. J. Psychol., 1951. 21. 38-48.
11) Toda, M.: Outline of a theory of decision making. The Annual Reports on Cultural Science, The Faculty of Literature, Hokkaido Universiky.(In press.)
12) Toda, M., & Ota, H.: An experimental study of the interrelationship between the two methods of measuring the sequence of values of subjective inference, i. e., the game-method and the guessing-method. Jap. J. Psychol., 1955, 25,265-269.
13) Umeoka, Y., & Toda, M.: Hito no yosoku no sokudo to shiteno gesshingu keiretsu no datosei ni kansuru jikkenteki kento. (Abstruct) Jap. J. Psychol., 1954, 25, 16-17.

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