Earthquake Prediction Methods in Ibaraki Districts(1) 

－Pattern Quantification and Prediction of Earthquakes in Tsukuba District－

Abstract

Earthquake prediction by the MT-system was proposed by Genichi Taguchi in 1995. Studies started in the Yano laboratory at Tokyo Denki University in 2004 demonstrated that earthquake prediction was possible to some extent, but there was considerable prediction error. A new study was started in line with new developments in the MT-system. Data collection was started in Tsukuba district. This paper gives a periodic analysis of seismic waveforms in the Tsukuba district and obtains the distances of ground vibrations by using the RT method, with the variance of the period as an attribute. The possibility of prediction by a further two-tail T method is shown, based on the variation of the distance over time. The estimated S/N ratio was -0.176 db and the sensitivity was 0.016 db. The prediction error was ±10% at a vibration velocity of 20μm/s.