2024 Volume 21 Pages 161-177
New drug development in recent years has shifted to new types of compounds, such as biopharmaceuticals and molecular-target drugs, but the market size for these types of drugs tends to be smaller. The transition to biopharmaceuticals and molecular-target drugs development is a high-risk choice, with high development and manufacturing costs, significantly higher switching costs, yet no less development uncertainty. Nonetheless, it seems to contradict the general concept of product innovation that the market size for new drugs should be smaller.
An examination of drug development cases in the field of lung cancer over the last 20 years reveals change in the drug development process whereby drug development proceeds in the interaction of the three trends: more precise therapeutic targets, the emergence of biopharmaceuticals and molecular-target drugs, and the limitation of patient indication, in line with the social shaping of technology, when the condition of increased clinical value is met. The downsizing of new drug markets can be viewed as one aspect of the drug development process.
