Long Term Prognosis and Prediction of Therapeutic Effects

Abstract

A long term prognosis of 248 patients with ITP was analysed. A complete remission was observed in 53 of 62 patients with acute ITP (85.4%), 45 of 127 cases of chronic ITP (35.4%) and 35 of 59 splenectomized patients (59.3%).
The period between the onset of disease and the remission was 5 months, 7.2 years and 5.0 years (1 year after splenectomy) on the average in acute ITP, chronic ITP and splenectomized patients respectively.
Fifteen cases inclusive of 8 cases of SLE and 3 cases of aplastic anemia, were diagnosed as ITP at the first examination. Two cases of SLE received splenectomy in 4 months and 1 year after seeing doctor at the first time.
An intracranial bleeding leads to death in 7 of 8 deceased cases in acute ITP and bleeding in other sites of body was a cause of death in chronic ITP.
A prediction of the therapeutic effects in 70 cases which had complete data of 6 factors as the dose of steroid hormons given according to the first medication, the type of ITP, age of patients, years betweenen the onset of disease and the first examination, was maede using a numerical method of class II. 76.9% of cases obtained complete remission was predictable as effective after the first treatment.
Further analysis is needed using many more patients and it seems to be necessary to review the factors for analysis.