RESEARCH PERSPECTIVE TO IMPROVE REAL-TIME RIVER STAGE FORECASTING BASED ON A 2011 KMANO RIVER FLOOD PREDICTION

Abstract

To improve real-time river stage prediction techniques especially for severe floods beyond our experience it is imperative to extend a river discharge prediction method as well as a technique to develop a rating curve applicable for floods exceeding existing observed data. Through a hydrologic prediction of the 2011 Kumano River flood causes of flood prediction uncertainties are analyzed and research issues to improve real-time river stage forecasting are discussed.